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Prepared by the
Institute for the Analysis of Global Security

July 5 , 2007

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Useful Reference:

Set America Free

Iraq Pipeline Watch

Energy OpinionSource Editorial roundup

Iranian firm wins Iraq's gas tender

Iran seeks changes in Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline agreement

India, Pakistan Hold Talks On Iran Gas Pipeline

Iran to export natural gas to Oman

Iran-Oman gas pact to open new export routes

Analysis: Iran looks West with eye on East

Iran Launches Gasoline Rationing Plan - no rationing for CNG

Ahmadinejad: if cars run on natural gas there would be no need for gasoline imports

Khamenei Backs Gasoline-Rationing Move

Petrol stations torched in Iran after Ahmadinejad rations fuel

In Iran, Black Market Emerges Following Gasoline Rationing

Iran Plans to Ration Electricity in Addition to Gasoline

Iran Khodro bi-fuel cars

Iran produces bi-fuel Renault Logan

Automaker Iran Khodro Company (IKCO) has purchased 70k CNG tanks with orders for 300k more

Sudan, Iran find a bypass to U.N. sanctions

Venezuela to sell gasoline to Iran

Chavez's Iranian visit wrapped in blaze of rhetoric

Iran, Venezuela collaborate on methanol plants

Reports: Central Asia-Iran Rail Planned

US Concerned by Armenia's Energy Ties with Iran

Iran and Caspian Meet

Iran's foreign assets up %30

Iran issues $3.3b worth of foreign investment permits

Gaz de France buys Iranian hydrocarbon blocks tender documents

Matthew Levitt: Making Iran feel the pain

Forbes: Mullahs Gone Wild

Kirk, Andrews Introduce Bipartisan Iran Sanctions Enhancement Act to Curb Iranian Gasoline Imports

Legislative text: Iran Sanctions Enhancement Act of 2007

Legislative text: Iran Sanctions Enabling Act (Introduced in Senate)

Legislative text: Iran Sanctions Enabling Act of 2007 (Introduced in House)

Legislative text: Bill to expand Iran Sanctions Act of 1996

The Doctrine of Mahdism In the Ideological and Political Philosophy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Mesbah-e Yazdi

Back Issues

IN THIS ISSUE: (summaries below, click links for full articles)

Iran's Oil Industry: A House of Cards?
At first glance, Iran looks like an energy superpower. It is the second largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). It owns 11 percent of the world's conventional oil reserves, second only to Saudi Arabia. It also sits on 16 percent of the world's gas reserves, the largest reserve after Russia. A closer look, however, reveals that Iran's energy sector is a house of cards. It is neglected, crumbling and underinvested. Oil may be Iran's greatest strength, but it is also Iran's greatest weakness. As such, the debate in the West on how to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons should focus less on the risky military option, or the seemingly ineffective diplomatic option, and more on a comprehensive economic warfare strategy that targets Iran's energy sector. With oil exports accounting for half the government's budget and around 80 to 90 percent of total export earnings, the surest strategy to bring down Tehran's Islamic regime is to break its economic backbone.

Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline: A view from Washington
In normal times, a pipeline connecting India and Pakistan would have been welcome news in Washington. There is nothing like a multibillion dollar joint economic project to create interdependence and hence reduce tension between South Asia's two traditionally adversarial nuclear powers. But these are not normal times and with the risk of war in South Asia greatly diminished, America's top foreign policy priority is preventing the proliferation of terrorism, radical Islam and, above all, nuclear weapons. In this, the prime challenge is Iran, which defies the international community by developing nuclear capabilities, supplies militias in Iraq with weapons used to kill American troops, trains and funds groups like Hizballah and Hamas and calls for Israel to be "wiped off the map". This is why the planned US$7 billion Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) natural gas pipeline which would provide the Islamic Republic an economic lifeline at a time when the US and its European allies are trying to weaken it economically and also create an unbreakable long term political and economic dependence of India and Pakistan on one of the world's most dangerous regimes is not to Washington's liking. Read about what the United States should do.

Ahmadinejad's Gas Revolution: A Plan to Defeat Economic Sanctions
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has placed Iran on a course to immunity from international sanctions by addressing its prime vulnerbility, refining capacity, with a three pronged strategy: building refineries, strengthening relationships with refined products exporting countries unlikely to abide by a sanctions regime, and most importantly, shifting Iran's transportation fleet from gasoline to natural gas.

The coming Sunni-Shi'ite nuclear arms race
As tension between Sunnis and Shi'ites mounts from Iraq to Lebanon another front is opening in the deepening strife between the two parts of the Muslim world: The race to acquire nuclear capabilities. With both nuclear Israel and nuclear Iran the West can no longer stop Sunni Arabs from pursuing an insurance policy against their staunchest enemies. This is not only another reminder of the destabilizing impact of a nuclear Iran but also that a dispute between the Americans and Europeans and their Sunni allies over the nuclear issue is in the cards.


Don't miss the NATO-IAGS energy security conference 19-20 July, 2007
Please join us as the NATO School and IAGS bring together representatives from policy making, international organisations, academia, and industry to address these and other pressing questions, and as public institutions seek to define the "security" of energy security. Separate panel discussions will examine:
  • Aligning the Security and Commercial Logics of Energy
  • Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection
  • Public and Private Risk Assessment
  • The Security Politics of Energy Interdependence
  • Energy and the Future Security Environment

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