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Prepared by the
Institute for the Analysis of Global Security

July 12, 2004
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Energy Security Current Issue

Terror's Next Target
Attacks on the West's oil and gas infrastructure -- from production facilities to pipelines and tankers -- are likely to be the next "mega" target of terrorists, and could wreak havoc with the world's economy, according to an in-depth IAGS analysis of the susceptibility of the energy industry featured in the latest Journal of International Security Affairs (Winter 2004).

China and US should set up a strategic dialogue on energy issues
Interview with Dr. Gal Luft of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, originally published by 21st Century Business Herald in Chinese.

A crude threat
The terrorist campaign against Iraq's pipelines demonstrates that pipeline attacks are no longer a tactic but part of a sustained, orchestrated effort that can deliver a significant strategic gain. They can also cause significant damage to the global oil market.
Next in line to emulate the insurgents in Iraq could well be Islamist terrorist groups operating in Central Asia, among them Chechen separatists and the Islamic Party of Liberation, a group that seeks to carry out a holy war against the West and is a suspect in the recent wave of deadly attacks in Uzbekistan.

Highlights from the Department of Energy’s International Energy Outlook 2004-2025

North Sea oil is declining
Since the 1970s North Sea oil has not only been a major source of wealth for both the British and Norwegian economies but also a way for Europe to cut its dependence on Middle East oil. Now many of the major fields in the North Sea are in decline and the North Sea is about to lose its prominent role as one of the world's leading oil domains.

Terror's Big Prize
Since September 11, pipelines, tankers, refineries and oil terminals have been attacked frequently. Except for a sharp increase in maritime insurance premiums in these regions these attacks had marginal strategic consequences. But in at least two cases oil terrorism could have rattled the world.

Libya: changing its spots?
Libyan crude oil is particularly attractive due to its very low sulphur content, which requires much less refining than higher sulphur oil. It is extremely high quality crude, whose characteristics are not easily found elsewhere. Despite its unique treasure, Libya's production capacity is relatively small, standing on 1.5 mbd of crude, or 2% of world supplies.
Since the 1988 Lockerbie bombing Libya had been under U.S. and UN sanctions which hindered its ability to generate enough investment to develop its oil sector. Libya's decision to embark on a rapprochement with the U.S came at unsurprisingly perfect timing, just as concessions for major U.S. oil companies were about to expire.

On the technology front

Fuel Cell power plant installed at NJ College
The fuel cell will provide 250 kilowatts of electric power as well as heat, to several buildings on the campus.

Biomass-to-Ethanol Progress
The enzyme costs of converting cellulosic biomass into sugars for fuel ethanol production have been reduced approximately twenty-fold with technology developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Denmark based Novozymes, biotech-based leader in enzymes and microorganisms.

EU study: Methanol from biomass - competitive with gasoline
A study of a new patented Swedish technology concluded that the alchohol fuel methanol can be produced from biomass via black liquor gasification at a cost competitive with that of gasoline and diesel.


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Back Issues

Study: Coal based methanol is cheapest fuel for fuel cells

A recently completed study by University of Florida researchers for the Georgetown University fuel cell program assessed the the future overall costs of various fuel options for fuel cell vehicles.

The primary fuel options analyzed by the study, titled “An Investigation of the Feasibility of Coal-Based Methanol for Application in Transportation Fuel Cell Systems,” were hydrogen from natural gas, hydrogen from coal, and methanol from coal.

To estimate the cost of fuels for fuel cell vehicles for the year 2020, several elements were investigated. First, the total energy demand for fuel cell vehicles in the U.S. was projected, based on recent energy trends and expected future energy demand. The study assumed that fuel cell vehicles will be introduced into the U.S. fleet gradually, and account for half of new vehicle purchases in 2020. Second, the demand, supply, and cost of the two studied feedstocks (natural gas and coal) were analyzed. Lastly, the study examined costs of the various fuel production methods, transportation, storage, and taxes.

The key finding of the hydrogen fuel cost analysis are summarized in the following comparison of the projected costs per gasoline-equivalent gallon in the year 2020 for the different sources of hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles (costs include taxes and are given in 1996 dollars):

Hydrogen (H2) Feedstock $/gallon in 2020 (gasoline equivalent)
H2 from Natural Gas Off-board reforming $3.44 - $4.32
H2 from Coal Gasification $3.18
H2 from Methanol from Coal On-board reforming $1.77


More info:
DOE: Clean Coal-to-Methanol project a success. Top